The Predictive Validity of Education Report Numeracy Scores on Senior High School Mathematics Academic Ability Test Achievement
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The quality of mathematics education in Indonesia faces systemic challenges, prompting a shifting focus toward data-driven national evaluations. However, a structural consistency gap remains between administrative literacy mapping and higher-stakes curriculum-based academic testing. This study aims to examine the positive influence and prove the degree of predictive validity of the Education Report (Rapor Pendidikan) numeracy scores in projecting the achievement of the Mathematics Academic Ability Test (TKA) at the school level. A quantitative correlational approach with an ex-post facto design was applied. The population comprised 21 senior high schools in Biak Numfor Regency, with a purposive sample of 19 schools fulfilling the complete data inclusion criteria. Secondary aggregate data from the official 2025/2026 academic year database were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk normality testing, linearity testing, and simple linear regression analysis. The descriptive results revealed that 52.63% of schools fell into the low category for numeracy scores, while 68.42% achieved an adequate level in TKA Mathematics. The regression model produced a linear equation Y ̂= 26.95806 + 0.09537X. The hypothesis testing confirmed a significant positive influence (t = 2.269; p = 0.0366 < 0.05). The coefficient of determination (R2) showed a predictive validity degree of 23.24%. In conclusion, Rapor Pendidikan numeracy scores serve as a scientifically valid early screening instrument to project formal mathematics performance at the institutional level.
Downloads
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Pi: Mathematics Education Journal allows readers to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of its articles and allow readers to use them for any other lawful purpose.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The Authors submitting a manuscript do so with the understanding that if accepted for publication, copyright of the article shall be assigned to Pi: Mathematics Education Journal
References
[1] Indonesia. (1945). Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945. Sekretariat Negara.
[2] OECD. (2023). PISA 2022 results (Volume I): The state of learning and equity in education. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/53f23881-en
[3] Badan Standar, Kurikulum, dan Asesmen Pendidikan. (2021). Framework Asesmen Kompetensi Minimum (AKM). Kementerian Pendidikan, Kebudayaan, Riset, dan Teknologi.
[4] Pusat Standar dan Kebijakan Pendidikan. (2026). Laporan analisis hasil evaluasi akademik nasional dan capaian TKA SMA tahun 2025/2026. Kementerian Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah.
[5] Hamzah, N. P., & Sesmiarni, Z. (2025). Transformasi sistem evaluasi pendidikan: Kajian atas implementasi Asesmen Nasional (AN) dan Tes Kompetensi Akademik (TKA) di Indonesia. Jurnal Edu Research, 3(6), 2738–2748. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.47827/jer.v6i3.1513
[6] Kementerian Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah. (2026). Peraturan Menteri Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah Nomor 9 Tahun 2026 tentang Perubahan atas Peraturan Menteri Pendidikan, Kebudayaan, Riset, dan Teknologi Nomor 17 Tahun 2021 tentang Asesmen Nasional.
[7] Musakirawati, Susanto, J., Anggriawan, F., Triansyah, F., Akib, & Tahir, A. (2023). Pemanfaatan platform Rapor Pendidikan Indonesia terhadap perencanaan berbasis data. Jurnal Pendidikan dan Konseling, 2(7), 201-208. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26740/jdmp.v7n2.p201-208
[8] Kiriana, I., & Widiasih, N. (2023). Implementasi Rapor Pendidikan dalam meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan nasional. Widya Accarya: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan FKIP Universitas Dwijendra, 2(14), 145–155. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.46650/wa.14.2.1462.156-164
[9] Shintia, D., Asbari, M., Khairunisa, F., & Azizah, N. (2023). Rapor Pendidikan Indonesia: Quo Vadis Kualitas Pendidikan Indonesia? Journal of Information Systems and Management (JISMA), 6(2), 18-21. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4444/jisma.v2i6.633
[10] Pusat Standar dan Kebijakan Pendidikan. (2025). Rapor Pendidikan Indonesia 2025: Kabupaten Biak Numfor. Kementerian Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah.
[11] Ferdian, F. R., & Azwar, S. (2019). PAPS predictive validity in predicting the learning success of master of professional psychology students. Jurnal Penelitian dan Evaluasi Pendidikan, 2(23), 117-128. https://doi.org/https://doi.org./10.21831/pep.v23i2.25299
[12] Zaman, A., Jumani, N., Alamgir, Ali, A., & Hussain, M. (2011). Predictive validity of scores in mathematics for reasoning ability in mathematics for grade 9 students in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa based on curriculum of mathematics. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 12, 588-594. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.02.072
[13] Badan Standar, Kurikulum, dan Asesmen Pendidikan. (2025). Peraturan Kepala Badan Standar, Kurikulum, dan Asesmen Pendidikan Nomor 045/H/AN/2025 tentang Kerangka Asesmen Tes Kemampuan Akademik Jenjang SMA/MA/Sederajat dan SMK/MAK. Kementerian Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah.
[14] Sukamto, A., Bahrani, & Nurvayanti, N. (2026). Tes Kemampuan Akademik (TKA) sebagai inovasi evaluasi pendidikan: Sebuah tinjauan naratif. Journal of Instructional and Development Researches (JIDeR), 1(6), 54-69. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.53621/jider.v6i1.695
[15] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor. (2025b). Kabupaten Biak Numfor dalam Angka 2025 (Vol. 19). Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor.
[16] Pemerintah Kabupaten Biak Numfor. (2025). Rancangan Akhir RPJMD Kabupaten Biak Numfor Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Daerah 2025-2029. Pemerintah Kabupaten Biak Numfor.
[17] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor. (2025). Buku Saku Data dan Indikator Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor 2025 (Vol. 2). Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor.
[18] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor. (2025a). Indikator Kesejahteraan Rakyat Kabupaten Biak Numfor 2025 (Vol 3). Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Biak Numfor.
[19] Rustiyana, R. (2026). Pemanfaatan rapor Tes Kemampuan Akademik (TKA) sebagai basis intervensi pedagogik dan peningkatan kapasitas guru MGMP di Kabupaten Bandung Barat. Jurnal Karya Insan Pendidikan Terpilih, 1(4), 602-617. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.62518/54d69r14
[20] Mubarok, M., Abdullah, A., Sholihah, D., Richardo, R., Nawangsasi, E., & Fitriana, Z. (2026). Pelatihan Tes Kemampuan Akademik (TKA) Matematika bagi siswa SMA/MA kelas XII di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Jurnal Pengabdian Sosial dan Kemanusiaan, 1(3), 299–305. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.62383/aksinyata.v3i1.3005
[21] Irawati, E., Fuady, A., & Alifiani, A. (2025). Pendampingan Intensif Persiapan TKA bagi siswa Madrasah Aliyah Sebagai Upaya Meningkatkan Peluang Masuk Perguruan Tinggi Negeri. Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa, 10(3), 5844–5849. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.59837/jpmba.v3i10.3645
[22] Kothari, C. (2004). Research Methodology: Methods and Techniques (2nd ed.). New Age International Publishers.
[23] Phibeta, T., Ekawati, R., & Wintarti, A. (2025). Senior High School Students’ Numeracy in Solving Number Content AKM Problems in View of Adversity Quotient. Jurnal Riset Pendidikan Dan Inovasi Pembelajaran Matematika, 2(9), 182-196. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26740/jrpipm.v9n2.p182-196